Mar. 12, 2008
 
Each of Us Has 1%. Together We have 3%
 
// Barack Obama's advisor shows the Russian opposition its place
 
  
 
The American Enterprise Institute, the analytical center closest to the 
Bush <http://www.whitehouse.gov/president/gwbbio.html>  administration,
 held a conference on Russia yesterday at which Russian opposition
 leaders Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Ryzhkov tried to explain why they had
 been unable to launch an effective opposition movement. In response,
 Michael McFaul, chief advisor on Russia to U.S. presidential candidate
 Barack Obama, advised them to work with the people more and held up the
 opposition movements in Iran, Pakistan and Morocco as examples. 
 
  
 
The AEI decided to hold a discussion on possible political changes in
 Russia not long before the March 2 elections. The think tank has been
 considered the most influential in the Republican Party in recent years
 and the closest to the Bush
 <http://www.whitehouse.gov/president/gwbbio.html>  administration. Among
 its staffers are Lynne Cheney, wife of the U.S. vice president, former
 president of the World Bank <http://www.worldbank.org>  Paul Wolfowitz,
 former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich and
 neoconservative Ur-ideologue Irving Kristol. The Russian studies
 director, Leon Aron, recently declared his refusal to attend the Valdai
 forum meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin
 <http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/> . "As over the years there were fewer and
 fewer opportunities for Russians to learn the truth about their own
 state and government and to voice (and act on) dissent, being a
 privileged foreigner admitted to the court of the new tsar and
 surrounded by 'official Russians' . . . was more of an effort for me
 than I was willing to undertake," told The Washington Post
 <http://www.washpost.com/>  recently. 
 
To elucidate what awaits Russia after the elections, Aron assembled
 representatives of the liberal opposition in Washington: former leader
 of the Union of Right Forces Boris Nemtsov, cochairman of the
 unregistered Republican Party Vladimir Ryzhkov, organizer of Vladimir
 Bukovsky's election campaign Vladimir Kara-Muza and Mikhail Kasyanov
 advisor Oleg Buklemishev. Michael McFaul, president of the Hoover
 Institute and advisor to Barack Obama came to talk with them.
 
Kara-Muza set the tone of the discussion. He spoke in detail about
 nominating the former dissent Bukovsky for president and why he was
 denied registration as a candidate. "Democracy and sovereign democracy
 are about as similar as a normal chair and an electric chair," he
 quipped.
 
> The opposition members were in agreement that it is completely
> impossible to engage in politics in Russia. Nemtsov stated that all the
> Russian media with a rating of 1 percent or higher are controlled by the
> Kremlin, including the most popular websites - Yandex, Rambler, mail.ru.
> Ryzhkov said that the Russian middle class, on which the liberals always
> pinned the biggest hopes, are unconcerned with liberal values and
> absolutely loyal to the authorities.
>
> The question was posed from the audience why the democrats in Russia
> have such low ratings and how much of the electorate would vote for them
> if there were free elections. "Each of us has a 1-percent rating.
> Ryzhkov, Kasyanov and I," said Nemtsov. "If we united, we will have 3
> percent." He attributed the situation to the censorship and propaganda
> the current Russian authorities rely on.
>
> Having explained their problems, the guests from Russia began to urge
> the Americans to help Russian democracy. The best help from America, in
> the opinion of Nemtsov and Ryzhkov, would be if the West stopped issuing
> visas to the Russian authorities. "As Garri Kasparov said, they want to
> rule like Stalin and vacation like Abramovich," Nemtsov observed. "They
> want to have villas in the south of France. They want their children to
> study in England. They want to go to Europe and America for the weekend.
> If you stopped giving them visas, as you stopped giving them to
> Lukashenko and his circle, that would be the best help for the Russian
> people. I don't understand why, when the West has that leverage on
> Russia, it doesn't use it."
>
> Leon Aron nodded his head strenuously.
>
> Ryzhkov lent his support, recalling the story of how a Belarusian woman
> official was unable to make a purchase in a fancy shop in New York
> because her account was blocked "and ten Belarusian political prisoners
> were freed the same day."
>
> Developing that thought, Ryzhkov suddenly noted that all the United
> States' problems were tied with totalitarian states: the Soviet Union,
> Hussein's Iraq, North Korea, Iran. "Why should you be so stupid? Why not
> prevent Russia from turning into a totalitarian state so it won't cause
> you problems?" he asked.
 
Cato Institute senior fellow Andrey Illarionov joined in the
 conversation from his place in the audience. He thorough criticized his
 opposition comrades, mentioning in particular that "Union of Right
 Forces member Anatoly Chubais hailed Dmitry Medvedev's election as
 president" and "Union of Right Forces ideologue Alfred Kokh played a key
 role in the destruction of NTV <http://www.ntv.ru>  television company."
 
 
"He's not even a member of the party!" Nemtsov shouted, switching from
 English to Russian in his excitement.
 
Aron and McFaul watched this exchange between opponents of the regime
 with apprehensively, but it ended with Illarionov asking McFaul to
 compare the Russian regime with others now and formerly existing. McFaul
 agreed with Illarionov that Russia should not be compared with Pakistan
 - it was insulting to Pakistan, where the opposition had won the last
 elections. He said the Russian political system was more like that of
 Iran. The prosperity of both countries depended on the export of gas and
 oil; in both countries, liberal forces tried to achieve change by
 cooperating with the undemocratic ruling regime and failed; the role of
 president in both countries is secondary to that of the spiritual or
 national leader. But even in Iran, where, McFaul admitted, the regime is
 more repressive, the opposition was much more active than in Russia. One
 of the women's organizations in Iran was able to gather 1 million
 signatures on a petition to change the constitution, which limits
 women's rights to the roles of wife and mother.
 
McFaul also hinted that the Russian opposition should not complain about
 the strict laws, as he recalled the example of Morocco. That country is
 a constitutional monarchy with a rather active opposition. Finally, he
 gave the Russian opposition some advice. In his opinion, taking part in
 elections is only a small part of the democratic process. The opposition
 should work with the public not only before elections, but all the time.
 He recalled the African National Congress in South Africa spent 7-0
 years in the opposition before it was able to take part in an election.
 And then it won.
 
"And they say the Russian opposition lacks charismatic leaders," smiled
 McFaul. "But they are wrong. Here they are."
 
  
 
Nargiz Asadova, RIA Novosti, especially for Kommersant; Mikhail Zygar,
Washington